Small business optimism improved in December 2025, with the National Federation of Independent Business’ (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index rising to 99.5, above its long-term average, according to the latest NFIB Small Business Economic Trends report. At the same time, the Uncertainty Index dropped to its lowest level since June 2024, signaling more stable expectations for 2026. Of note, optimism was well above the average in the months following the 2024 presidential election (December 2024 was a high of 105.1) but have stabilized in the succeeding months.
NFIB reports that expectations for better business conditions were the main driver of improved sentiment, as owners anticipate easing cost pressures, improved access to labor, and increased capital investment in the year ahead.
For transportation-related small businesses, several indicators are notable. Vehicle purchases rose, with 27% of owners who made capital investments acquiring vehicles, reflecting continued fleet upgrades and replacements (and possibly the renewal of the depreciating assets tax savings). However, hiring remains difficult, with 33% of small business owners across all sectors reporting job openings they could not fill, and most citing few or no qualified applicants.
Taxes emerged as the top concern, cited by 20% of owners as their single most important problem—the highest level since May 2021. Labor quality and labor costs also ranked among the leading challenges.
Price pressures showed signs of easing. Fewer owners raised selling prices in December, and fewer plan to raise prices in the near term, though pricing levels remain above historical norms, suggesting inflation is still a factor for many operators.
Supply chain conditions remained steady, with 64% of owners reporting some level of disruption, but more businesses described the impact as mild or moderate rather than severe.
Despite ongoing challenges, overall business outlook improved. A net 24% of owners expect better business conditions in the coming months, the first increase in optimism since mid-2025, though only 13% say now is a good time to expand.
The survey was conducted in December 2025 and reflects responses from NFIB member businesses nationwide. The full report is released monthly by the NFIB Research Center.
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