BY SUSAN ROSE
By now, most operators are familiar with the rise of autonomous vehicles (AVs), whether through articles about robotaxis in Phoenix and San Francisco or announcements from companies like Alphabet and Tesla investing billions into the technology. But if one message emerged from a recent industry discussion at the CD/NLA Show in Vegas featuring transportation attorney and regulatory expert Matt Daus of Windels Marx and industry consultant Ken Lucci of Driving Transactions, it’s that AVs are no longer a theoretical issue.
The session, Autonomous Vehicles Are Coming: Navigating the Road Ahead, explored the sobering future we will have with emerging vehicle advancements—and how that fits into the current transportation model. The technology is here, it’s evolving quickly, and it has the potential (if not the certainty) to reshape portions of the ground transportation industry. While no one knows for sure how it will play out, and despite the attention-grabbing headlines and aggressive investment, it’s time to be strategic but not necessarily panic.
Instead, both Lucci and Daus urged operators to do something far less dramatic: pay attention, stay informed, and prepare for a future that may arrive more slowly—and differently—than many expect.
The Technology Is Advancing, and So Is the Investment
Lucci opened the discussion by pointing to one of the biggest drivers of the autonomous movement: economics. The cost of the technology has fallen significantly, making large-scale deployment increasingly realistic.
Ken Lucci of Driving Transactions
“The cost of an AV is drastically reducing,” he said, noting that vehicles that once carried six-figure price tags are becoming substantially more affordable. (Compare Waymo’s original Jaguar AV at a cost of $180,000 to its current ZEEKR at $85,000.) At the same time, major players including Waymo, Tesla, Zoox, and Uber are continuing to invest heavily in autonomous programs, creating an environment where operators can no longer dismiss it as a Silicon Valley experiment.
“I believe it’s going to be 20% of TNC rides,” Lucci said, referencing his own projections for autonomous adoption compared to Wall Street’s lower estimate at around 8% by 2030. “There’s just absolutely too much activity.”
To further his point, Lucci noted that the conversations between AV companies and corporate travel departments are already happening. But will corporate travel managers want their executives who book the first eight rows of an airplane to get into an AV? According to Lucci, the industry needs to be proactive and ask them.
Matt Daus of Windels Marx
That doesn’t mean the technology is coming for every segment of the industry tomorrow. In fact, both Daus and Lucci repeatedly emphasized that geography remains one of the luxury transportation industry’s greatest advantages. Robotaxis perform best in dense urban areas where vehicles can complete short trips and quickly pick up another passenger. Long suburban deadhead miles make the economics much more difficult—and forget about rural AV transportation for the time being. Even Uber and Lyft have a hard time now addressing that lack of available drivers in less populated areas.
“We will maintain the wealthy suburbs,” Lucci said about chauffeured transportation. “That’s our venue.”
For operators serving affluent residential areas, business travelers, and executive clients, the message was encouraging. There may be significant disruption ahead, but certain parts of the market are likely to remain resilient if or until the technology finds a better way.
Airports Could Become the Industry’s Next Battleground
If there was one issue that repeatedly surfaced throughout the discussion, it was airport access. Lucci argued that the industry cannot afford to become complacent about its position at airports, particularly as autonomous companies begin exploring new transportation opportunities.
For decades, premium airport service has been one of the cornerstones of the chauffeured transportation business model. Convenient pickup locations, curbside access, and preferred operating areas have all helped distinguish luxury transportation providers from other forms of ground transportation. Maintaining those advantages will become increasingly important if autonomous operators begin seeking access to the same space.
“Our major concern has to be the airports,” he said. “We don’t do our job unless we maintain premium preferred airport positioning within walking distance.”
The recommendation was straightforward: Operators should become involved in every airport discussion taking place in their markets. That means attending meetings (especially association meetings), building relationships with airport officials, and ensuring that the industry’s voice is represented before policies are written.
Daus agreed that airports will play a pivotal role, although he noted that many airport authorities may initially prefer to keep autonomous operations in separate areas.
“The companies themselves also want it to be contained in an area where it’s safe,” he said, noting that early deployments often take a cautious approach before expanding operations. While it varies by airport, facilities like San Francisco International currently require Waymo pickups at the rental car hub, which is accessible via the AirTrain, instead of at the terminals.
The Industry’s Future May Include Opportunity, Not Just Competition
Despite concerns about robotaxis, Lucci believes the chauffeured transportation industry could ultimately find opportunities in autonomous technology. While much of the discussion surrounding AVs centers on competition, he suggested that operators are uniquely positioned to become partners. Keep in mind that companies like Uber aren’t necessarily trying to own or manage fleets but own the customer relationship.
“We have to be absolutely open to it and prepared to be the fleet operator that they’re going to need.”
The AV is just a vessel; someone will still need to manage vehicles, maintain fleets, assist customers, provide backup transportation, and respond when technology fails. Campus shuttles, event transportation, community circulators, and airport people-movers could all create opportunities for professional fleet operators.
Eventually, Lucci believes there will be an industry platform for private autonomous transportation, and operators who educate themselves now will be better positioned to participate.
The Biggest Questions Still Haven’t Been Answered
While Lucci focused largely on business strategy and market evolution, Daus discussed the regulatory and legal issues that remain unresolved—much of which is a patchwork of laws across states, cities, or regions. Of note, Daus is also the president of the International Association of Transportation Regulators (IATR), which regularly discusses and helps to shape policies of current and emerging transportation.
If nothing else, AV companies aren’t just competitors, they’re trying to influence regulations right now—and they have the deepest pockets and loudest microphones to do so.
“I still don’t think they know what the business model is,” Daus said. “They’re all making it up as they go along to some extent.” It’s a fair assessment of the situation because we’re really in brand-new territory.
Among the biggest concerns is liability. Questions surrounding product liability, software failures, and insurance responsibility remain largely unanswered. Regulators continue to debate who is responsible when an AV is involved in a crash and how victims should be compensated.
“There is no such thing as AV insurance in the general marketplace,” Daus said. “No victim of an AV crash should be without insurance or other form of redress for injuries sustained.”
He suggested that entirely new compensation structures could ultimately emerge, perhaps resembling workers’ compensation systems or victim compensation funds.
Consumer Acceptance Is Improving
One of the session’s most interesting moments came when moderator and CD/NLA Show Education Committee Co-chair Jason Sharenow of Broadway Elite Worldwide shared his personal experience. While visiting Phoenix, he described rides in several Waymo vehicles and came away impressed.
“I was blown away by the technology,” he said. “Would I put my child in this car? The answer, I think, was yes.”
The comment immediately sparked a response from the audience, including Phoenix local Jason Kaplan of The Driver Provider, who said that he trusts the tech with the safety of his family after more than 100 rides without issue.
This underscored an interesting and important dichotomy: While many operators remain skeptical of AVs, some consumers are becoming increasingly comfortable with the technology. For this industry, that doesn’t necessarily mean clients will abandon the use of professional transportation services, but it does suggest that consumer adoption may happen faster than many expect—and that will be especially true for younger generations.
Safety Concerns Persist
However, real questions about safety ultimately remain. Brett Barenholtz of Above All/Maine Limousine and president of the National Limousine Association and the New England Livery Association noted that much of the industry’s safety data comes directly from the companies operating these AVs—the very companies that not only broke the rules (we’re looking at you, Uber and Lyft) to enter the market in the first place more than a decade ago, but will be the beneficiaries of the adoption of this type of transportation. Lucci acknowledged that it was a real concern.
Daus, however, argued that the broader body of evidence supports the idea that autonomous systems may ultimately prove safer than human drivers. Still, he also pointed to new risks that don’t exist with traditional driving, particularly when responsibility shifts between automated systems and human operators. The so-called “handoff” period—when a human driver must suddenly take control of a vehicle—has been identified as a significant safety challenge and remains an area of concern for regulators.
What About Chauffeurs?
For many operators, the biggest question revolves around their professional chauffeurs and drivers. Will there be a need for a human in the actual ride experience? Daus believes those concerns are understandable but may be premature. He envisions a future where higher levels of vehicle automation could coexist with professional chauffeurs, allowing drivers to focus more heavily on customer service, luggage assistance, and the overall passenger experience.
“The drivers are in the cars. They’re concierges,” he said, while adding, “This is going to be, in my opinion, the last industry to be hit.”
And if AVs are anything like TNCs, the same problems will still exist. AVs, like TNCs, will operate best where demand is concentrated (dense areas of population). Chauffeured transportation, on the other hand, often thrives in those underserved areas that rideshares neglect due to economies of scale—where reliability matters more than instant availability. The tech may fundamentally alter the chauffeur’s role, but AVs will not solve the georgraphy problem.
Where We Go From Here
Despite the uncertainty, both Daus and Lucci arrived at similar conclusions: Operators should become educated, participate in industry discussions, strengthen relationships with regulators and airports, and remain informed about developments in their local markets.
“Operators and associations must know and participate in all the local, state, and airport dialogue,” Lucci said.
Daus echoed that sentiment, encouraging operators to follow industry developments closely while avoiding hasty decisions and being careful about the AV companies they may engage or ultimately partner with.
The future of autonomous transportation remains unwritten. Billions of dollars are being invested, new partnerships are emerging, and the technology is improving rapidly. But the chauffeured transportation industry still possesses significant strengths: personalized service, duty of care, trusted relationships, market reach (especially outside of cities), and an experience that technology alone may struggle to replicate.
“This is far from over and it’s a threat. But I don’t think it’s an immediate threat to all of you,” said Daus.
For now, that may be the industry’s biggest takeaway: Autonomous vehicles are coming, but there is still time to prepare—and perhaps even opportunity waiting for those willing to embrace the conversation. [CD0726]
